Thursday, February 19, 2009

The Cool, the Warm and the Ugly

The Cool, the Warm and the Ugly

It is hard to believe sometimes how opposite sources can be. Here I have two articles which are exact opposites. But, which one appears to have more substance?

The Cool:
I found an article by Don Easterborrk called "Global Cooling is Here: Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades."

This article is packed with science and data and references. It describes the role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and its correlation with the Glacial Decadal Oscillation (GDO), Dr Easterbrook's area of extertise. There is strong evidence here for 30 years of cooling up to the middle to late 2030's.

He does miss something crucial here:
He refers several times to past temperature fluctuations that have occurred before CO2 began to rise. He misses the fact that CO2 has been going up and down over time as often as the temperature, as the oceans warm and outgas CO2 and cool and take up CO2. CO2 was high (aboove 440 ppm and hitting 550 ppm occasionally) several times in the last 200 years. It was over 440 ppm as recently as the 1940's. It is nowhere close to that even now. C0rrections regarding interpretation of ice core data also indicate that CO2 was as high or higher than now during most of the ice ages. It is easy to assume it was low, but that does not appear to be the case. (See Beck's 180 Years of CO2 Data and work by Jaworowski, it's fascinating.)

I believe that Dr Easterbrook should stop saying that climate changes happened before CO2 began to rise. Instead, he should be emphasizing that CO2 and temperature are not a cause and effect pair, respectively, and that, if there is a relationship, it is that temperature changes and CO2 follows, just as CO2 peaked (in the mid-1940's) about 7 years after temperature peaked in the late 1930's and CO2 plunged after the temperature dropped in the 1950's. This is just a real application of Henry's Law for dissolved gases.

The Hot:
In contrast, I found a recent declaration by Dr Chris Field, a co-chair of the IPCC ("AAAS_ Tropical forests are drying out because of global warming."

Instead of mentioning anything about current global cooling, Fields apparently has been hiding indoors and playing with the computer models. He is claiming that the predicted warming could be as much as 6.4 deg C by 2100 and that the rainforests are going to dry up and catch fire. He blames China and India for greenhouse emissions and says something should be done now.

Actually, the way this news article was written, it sounds as if these forests are drying out now. This appears to be entirely unsubstantiated and is just more alarmist journalism, designed to make people submit to taxes and restrictions that they would normally reject or oppose.

The Ugly:
How far apart are these two articles?

One addresses the real world and the related science and is rather conservative in its conclusions, while the other relies solely on computer models which cannot even predict or simulate the recent past and makes wild claims that cannot be confirmed.

None of the models can predict the last 10 years of global cooling, let alone the climate years into the future. One model has been given a small temporary adjustment to create a temporary cooling, but it was done to create the semblance of accuracy rather than an honest functional output by the model.

As long as the models are a Swiss cheese of missing pieces and misvalued input (overblown CO2 emissions, altered thermodynamic constants, low resolution, cloud cover inadequacies, and complete misuse of water vapor), they cannot be trusted to provide any useful output.

These computer models are designed to tip, as they do not include the factors that make our climate as stable as it is. With usch a bias and their many imperfections (major flaws), they certainly should not be used to form or decide on any public or governmental policy.

I must give Dr Field credit for imagining a new and novel fantasy for something which is not happening. His alarmist blinders keep him from thinking spurious thoughts, such as warming causing more evaporation and more rainfall, or that forests with much less rainfall all over the world simply do not burst into flame oor burn uncontrollably. He seems to make the unfounded assumption that warming would radically change rainfall patterns - he would have to assume so to support this scenario/fantasy. Maybe he can make the equatorial zone go away all together . . . hmmm.

Next, I need to address the temperature of the planet, its past performance, and major real factors which make it what it is.

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